💰 SOFI: BUYING MORE AFTER A DROP OF MORE THAN 40%. COULD THIS STOCK RISE SIGNIFICANTLY BY 2028? $SOFI
Forward P/E of approximately 18.5×, double-digit revenue growth, improving profitability, and ambitious management outlook.
SoFi Technologies is a company I have been following for some time.
I recently made a small purchase and plan to buy more at current prices.
Not because the stock has dropped sharply. A price decline alone does not create an investment opportunity.
But because the stock price is falling much more sharply than the current business development suggests.
Let us look at the fundamentals, management outlook, and potential appreciation.
1. SoFi is no longer just a lender
SoFi is gradually building a digital financial platform that offers bank accounts, investing, credit cards, mortgages, personal loans, and other financial services.
Its main competitive advantage is the integration of these products.
A customer can start, for example, with a checking account and gradually move to investing, a loan, or premium membership.
This creates room for growth in customer lifetime value and potentially lower costs of acquiring additional products.
And the numbers are beginning to show that this strategy works.
In Q2 2026, the company achieved:
15.8 million customers (+35% YoY)
24.4 million products (+42% YoY)
1.1 million new customers in the quarter
2.2 million new products in the quarter
It is very important that as many as 51% of new products were opened by existing customers.
This cross-selling is something I will be watching at SoFi over the long term.
2. Financial results – still exceptionally strong growth
Latest reported results for Q2 2026:
Metric
Q2 2026
YoY Growth
Adjusted revenue
$1.206 billion
+40%
Adjusted EBITDA
$358 million
+44%
GAAP net income
$157 million
+61%
Adjusted EPS
$0.12
+50%
Adjusted EBITDA margin
30%
—
SoFi is growing fast, but more importantly, it can generate profit.
Personally, I am mainly interested in whether this revenue growth will gradually translate into higher profitability and value per share.
This is where I see potential for the coming years.
3. Management and its outlook to 2028
Anthony Noto has a very solid track record.
Management has repeatedly beaten its own forecasts in the past and raised them during 2025.
For 2026, it currently expects:
Metric
Guidance 2026
Adjusted revenue
$4.75–4.85 billion
Revenue growth
32–35%
Adjusted EBITDA
$1.60 billion
Adjusted EBITDA margin
33–34%
Adjusted net income
$825 million
Adjusted EPS
$0.60
After Q2, management raised the revenue outlook but kept EPS and EBITDA guidance unchanged.
Part of the reason is higher expected taxes and part is continued investments in growth.
And now the most interesting part.
Management's medium-term ambition is to achieve at least a 30% CAGR in adjusted revenue by 2028 and approximately a 38–42% CAGR in adjusted EPS compared to 2025.
From this, an indicative target follows:
Adjusted revenue 2028: at least approximately $7.9 billion.
Adjusted EPS 2028: approximately $1.02–1.12.
If these targets are met, today's valuation will start to look considerably more interesting.
Of course, these are ambitious targets, and their achievement also depends on the economic environment.
4. Technology platform – the biggest disappointment, but also a potential catalyst
This is where I see SoFi's biggest problem.
The technology division includes Galileo and Technisys, which the company is gradually integrating under the SoFi Tech Solutions brand.
It is infrastructure for payments, digital banking, banking systems, and other financial services.
However, the revenue development has not been convincing so far.
Period
Revenue
Q2 2025
$109.8 million
Q1 2026
$75.1 million
Q2 2026
$84.5 million
So year over year, revenue fell by 23%.
The main reason was the departure of a major customer.
Moreover, the contribution margin in Q2 2026 was only 14%, compared to 30% a year earlier.
That is not good.
On the other hand, quarter over quarter, revenue already grew by 13%.
It is not yet a confirmed turnaround, but the first positive signal.
Management is now integrating products, expanding technology services, and working on migrating its own banking system.
My base case is that 2026 will be a period of stabilization and in 2027 the technology platform could gradually return to growth.
By 2028, I would like to see the contribution margin return toward 25–30%.
That is my estimate, not official management guidance.
If the technology platform can return to growth, SoFi will gain another revenue source that may be less capital-intensive than the lending business.
And that could over time change the valuation of the whole company.
5. Valuation – at these prices I am starting to buy
At a reference price of about $15.20, the approximate multiples are:
Year
Expected EPS
P/E
2026E
$0.59
25.8×
2027E
$0.82
18.5×
2028 – management target
$1.02–1.12
13.6–14.9×
For 2028, I use the derived medium-term management targets, not analyst consensus.
And this is my main argument.
At about 18.5× expected 2027 earnings, SoFi is starting to reach a valuation where I see an attractive risk/reward.
If the company continues to deliver double-digit revenue and EPS growth, we do not need extremely high earnings multiples.
However, it is important that this is not a cheap bank based on currently reported earnings. The market is still pricing in future growth, and the company must deliver it.
6. What return could SoFi deliver by 2028?
I created three simple scenarios.
I use an entry price of $15.20.
Scenario
EPS 2028
P/E
Stock price
Bearish
$0.75
12×
$9.00
Base
$1.07
20×
$21.40
Bullish
$1.12
24×
$26.88
What does this mean?
Bearish scenario: a decline of about 41%.
Base scenario: a gain of about 41%.
Bullish scenario: a gain of about 77%.
These are model scenarios, not guaranteed returns or analyst price targets.
My base case assumes that SoFi will achieve the midpoint of the medium-term EPS target and the market will be willing to pay about 20× earnings.
In the bullish scenario, sentiment and valuation will also improve.
It is important that even the bearish scenario remains realistic. For a growth financial company, a recession or deterioration in the loan portfolio can quickly change expectations.
7. What could break the investment thesis?
I do not want to look only at the positives.
I am watching four risks most closely.
1. Credit losses
SoFi has significant exposure to personal loans. If the economy worsens, non-performing loans could rise and profitability fall.
2. Technology platform
Galileo and Technisys are not yet delivering the results I would expect from quality technology infrastructure.
If the turnaround fails, the expected value of this segment could decline.
3. Shareholder dilution and capital intensity
For EPS growth, we must also watch the share count and capital requirements. It is not enough for the company's absolute profit to grow.
4. Overly optimistic forecasts
Management's targets are ambitious. If SoFi does not deliver the expected growth, today's forward P/E may create a false sense of a cheap stock.
8. What will I be watching on October 27?
The next results for Q3 2026 will be important for the investment thesis.
I want to see:
Continued growth in customers and products.
Strong revenue and adjusted EPS growth.
Stable loan portfolio quality.
Further quarter-over-quarter growth of the technology platform.
Improvement in its contribution margin.
Confirmation or increase of full-year guidance.
It will be especially interesting to see whether Galileo and Technisys can confirm the first signs of recovery.
9. My conclusion – why I plan to buy more
I like SoFi at current prices.
It is not a risk-free investment, and I would certainly not compare it to the stability of companies like Mastercard or S&P Global.
But the growth potential, in my view, is significant.
We have a company that:
Is growing adjusted revenue by 40% year over year.
Is significantly expanding its customer base.
Is profitable.
Has an ambitious EPS growth outlook.
Trades at about 18.5× expected 2027 earnings.
And at the same time has a technology division whose possible turnaround could bring additional growth.
I recently made a small purchase and now plan to buy more shares.
I do not need to catch the absolute bottom.
I am far more interested in whether the company can significantly increase its intrinsic value over the next few years.
If so, today's prices may look very good in hindsight.
And that is exactly what long-term investing is about for me.
Buying quality growth companies at a time when market expectations are much lower than before.
Investor without a tie 👔❌
Sources: SoFi Investor Relations, Q2 2026 Earnings Release (July 29, 2026), Q2 2026 earnings presentation, Yahoo Finance – Analyst Estimates.
Analysis as of October 14, 2026. Return scenarios do not account for taxes or currency risk. This is my personal investment view, not investment advice.
